安全(quan)(quan)(quan)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)同其他評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)一樣,都(dou)遵循如下基(ji)本(ben)原(yuan)理: (1) 安全(quan)(quan)(quan)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)是(shi)(shi)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)工程(cheng),因(yin)此,從系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)觀點(dian)出(chu)發,以(yi)(yi)全(quan)(quan)(quan)局的(de)(de)(de)(de)觀點(dian)、更大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)范(fan)圍、更長的(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)間、更大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)空間、更高的(de)(de)(de)(de)層(ceng)次來考慮系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)安全(quan)(quan)(quan)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)問題,并把(ba)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)中影響安全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)因(yin)素(su)用集合(he)(he)性(xing)(xing)、相(xiang)關(guan)性(xing)(xing)和(he)階(jie)層(ceng)性(xing)(xing)協調起(qi)來。 (2) 類推和(he)概(gai)率(lv)(lv)推斷(duan)(duan)原(yuan)則(ze)(ze)(ze)。如果(guo)已(yi)經知道(dao)兩個不同事(shi)件(jian)(jian)之間的(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)互制(zhi)約關(guan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)或共同的(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)聯系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)規律(lv),則(ze)(ze)(ze)可(ke)(ke)(ke)利用先導事(shi)件(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展規律(lv)來評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)遲發事(shi)件(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展趨勢,這就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)所(suo)謂的(de)(de)(de)(de)類推評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)。可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)看出(chu),這實際是(shi)(shi)一種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)預測技術。 根(gen)據小概(gai)率(lv)(lv)事(shi)件(jian)(jian)推斷(duan)(duan)準則(ze)(ze)(ze),若某系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)結果(guo)是(shi)(shi)其發生(sheng)事(shi)故的(de)(de)(de)(de)概(gai)率(lv)(lv)為(wei)小概(gai)率(lv)(lv)事(shi)件(jian)(jian),則(ze)(ze)(ze)推斷(duan)(duan)該系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)是(shi)(shi)安全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de);反之,若其概(gai)率(lv)(lv)很(hen)大(da),則(ze)(ze)(ze)認為(wei)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)是(shi)(shi)不安全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)。 (3) 慣性(xing)(xing)原(yuan)理。對(dui)于同一個事(shi)物(wu)(wu),可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)根(gen)據事(shi)物(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展都(dou)帶有(you)一定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)延(yan)續性(xing)(xing)即所(suo)謂慣性(xing)(xing),來推斷(duan)(duan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)未來發展趨勢。所(suo)以(yi)(yi),慣性(xing)(xing)原(yuan)理也(ye)(ye)可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)稱為(wei)趨勢外推原(yuan)理。應該注意的(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi),應用此原(yuan)理進行(xing)安全(quan)(quan)(quan)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)是(shi)(shi)有(you)條件(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de),它是(shi)(shi)以(yi)(yi)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)穩定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)為(wei)前提, 也(ye)(ye)就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)說,只有(you)在(zai)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)穩定(ding)(ding)時(shi),事(shi)物(wu)(wu)之間的(de)(de)(de)(de)內在(zai)聯系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)及其基(ji)本(ben)特征才有(you)可(ke)(ke)(ke)能延(yan)續下去。但是(shi)(shi),絕對(dui)穩定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)是(shi)(shi)不存在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de),這就(jiu)要(yao)根(gen)據系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)某些(xie)因(yin)素(su)的(de)(de)(de)(de)偏離程(cheng)度(du)對(dui)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)結果(guo)進行(xing)修正。 安全(quan)(quan)(quan)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)現(xian)在(zai)在(zai)國(guo)內外已(yi)經提出(chu)并應用的(de)(de)(de)(de)不下幾十種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),幾乎每種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)都(dou)有(you)較強的(de)(de)(de)(de)針對(dui)性(xing)(xing),也(ye)(ye)就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)說由于評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)對(dui)象的(de)(de)(de)(de)多樣性(xing)(xing),因(yin)而也(ye)(ye)就(jiu)提出(chu)許多種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)。綜(zong)合(he)(he)分(fen)(fen)析這些(xie)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa),可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)分(fen)(fen)成兩類: 一種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)是(shi)(shi)按評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)指標的(de)(de)(de)(de)量化程(cheng)度(du)分(fen)(fen)為(wei)定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)、定(ding)(ding)量方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa),以(yi)(yi)及定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)與定(ding)(ding)量相(xiang)結合(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa); 另一種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)是(shi)(shi)按評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)對(dui)象進行(xing)整合(he)(he): 如物(wu)(wu)質產(chan)品設備安全(quan)(quan)(quan)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)法(fa)(fa)(fa)( 如指數(shu)法(fa)(fa)(fa)等 ),安全(quan)(quan)(quan)管理評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)法(fa)(fa)(fa),系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)安全(quan)(quan)(quan)綜(zong)合(he)(he)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)法(fa)(fa)(fa)。本(ben)章按后一種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)分(fen)(fen)類方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)進行(xing)介紹。