事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)分(fen)(fen)析(xi) (Fault Tree Analysis,簡(jian)稱FTA) 是安(an)(an)全(quan)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)工程中常用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)(yi)(yi)種(zhong)(zhong)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa)。1961年,美(mei)國貝(bei)爾(er)電(dian)(dian)話研(yan)究所的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)維(wei)森 (H.A.Watson)首創了(le)(le)FTA 并應用(yong)(yong)于研(yan)究民兵(bing)式導(dao)(dao)彈(dan)發(fa)射(she)控制(zhi)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)全(quan)性評(ping)價(jia)(jia)中,用(yong)(yong)它來預(yu)(yu)測(ce)導(dao)(dao)彈(dan)發(fa)射(she)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)隨(sui)機故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)障(zhang)概率。接著,美(mei)國波音飛機公司的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)哈斯(si)爾(er) (Hassle) 等人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)對(dui)(dui)這(zhe)個方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa)又作(zuo)了(le)(le)重大(da)改(gai)進(jin)(jin)(jin),并采(cai)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)子(zi)(zi)計(ji)算機進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)輔助分(fen)(fen)析(xi)和(he)計(ji)算。 1974 年,美(mei)國原(yuan)子(zi)(zi)能委員(yuan)(yuan)會(hui)應用(yong)(yong)FTA對(dui)(dui)商用(yong)(yong)核電(dian)(dian)站進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)了(le)(le)風險(xian)評(ping)價(jia)(jia),發(fa)表(biao)了(le)(le)拉斯(si)姆遜(xun)報告 (Rasmussen Report),引起世界(jie)各國的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關(guan)注(zhu)。目(mu)前(qian)事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)法(fa)已從(cong)宇航、核工業進(jin)(jin)(jin)入(ru)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般電(dian)(dian)子(zi)(zi)、電(dian)(dian)力、化(hua)工、機械、交通等領域(yu),它可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)障(zhang)診斷(duan)、分(fen)(fen)析(xi)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)薄(bo)弱(ruo)環(huan)(huan)節(jie),指(zhi)導(dao)(dao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)全(quan)運行(xing)和(he)維(wei)修,實現(xian)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)優化(hua)設(she)計(ji)。 事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)分(fen)(fen)析(xi) (FTA) 是一(yi)(yi)(yi)種(zhong)(zhong)演繹推(tui)理法(fa),這(zhe)種(zhong)(zhong)方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa)把系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)可(ke)(ke)能發(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)某種(zhong)(zhong)事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)與導(dao)(dao)致事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)發(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各種(zhong)(zhong)原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)(yin)之間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)邏輯關(guan)系(xi)(xi)用(yong)(yong)一(yi)(yi)(yi)種(zhong)(zhong)稱為事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)形圖(tu)表(biao)示(shi),通過(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)定(ding)(ding)性與定(ding)(ding)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)析(xi),找出事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)發(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)(yin),為確定(ding)(ding)安(an)(an)全(quan)對(dui)(dui)策提(ti)供可(ke)(ke)靠(kao)依據,以(yi)(yi)達到預(yu)(yu)測(ce)與預(yu)(yu)防事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)發(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。FTA法(fa)具(ju)有以(yi)(yi)下(xia)特(te)(te)點: (1) 事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)是一(yi)(yi)(yi)種(zhong)(zhong)圖(tu)形演繹方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa),是事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)件在(zai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)定(ding)(ding)條件下(xia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)邏輯推(tui)理方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa)。它可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)圍繞(rao)某特(te)(te)定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)作(zuo)層層深入(ru)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)析(xi),因(yin)(yin)(yin)而在(zai)清晰的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)圖(tu)形下(xia),表(biao)達系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)內各事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)件間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內在(zai)聯(lian)系(xi)(xi),并指(zhi)出單(dan)元故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)障(zhang)與系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)之間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)邏輯關(guan)系(xi)(xi),便于找出系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)薄(bo)弱(ruo)環(huan)(huan)節(jie)。 (2) FTA具(ju)有很大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)靈活性,不僅可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)某些(xie)單(dan)元故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)障(zhang)對(dui)(dui)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang),還可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)對(dui)(dui)導(dao)(dao)致系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)特(te)(te)殊原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)(yin)如(ru)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)為因(yin)(yin)(yin)素、環(huan)(huan)境影(ying)響(xiang)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)。 (3) 進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)FTA的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)程,是一(yi)(yi)(yi)個對(dui)(dui)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)更深入(ru)認識的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)程,它要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)把握系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)內各要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)素間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內在(zai)聯(lian)系(xi)(xi),弄清各種(zhong)(zhong)潛(qian)在(zai)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素對(dui)(dui)事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)發(fa)生影(ying)響(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)途徑和(he)程度(du)(du),因(yin)(yin)(yin)而許多問題在(zai)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)程中就被發(fa)現(xian)和(he)解決了(le)(le),從(cong)而提(ti)高了(le)(le)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)全(quan)性 (4) 利(li)用(yong)(yong)事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)模型可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)定(ding)(ding)量(liang)計(ji)算復(fu)雜系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)發(fa)生事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概率,為改(gai)善(shan)和(he)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)安(an)(an)全(quan)性提(ti)供了(le)(le)定(ding)(ding)量(liang)依據。 事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)還存(cun)在(zai)許多不足(zu)之處,主要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)是:FTA 需(xu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)花費(fei)大(da)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)力、物力和(he)時(shi)間(jian)；FTA 的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)難(nan)度(du)(du)較大(da),建樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)過(guo)(guo)程復(fu)雜,需(xu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)經驗豐(feng)富的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技術人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)參(can)加,即使(shi)這(zhe)樣,也難(nan)免發(fa)生遺漏和(he)錯誤(wu)；FTA 只考慮(lv) (0,1) 狀(zhuang)態(tai)(tai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)件,而大(da)部分(fen)(fen)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)存(cun)在(zai)局(ju)部正常、局(ju)部故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)障(zhang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)狀(zhuang)態(tai)(tai),因(yin)(yin)(yin)而建立數學模型時(shi),會(hui)產生較大(da)誤(wu)差；FTA 雖然可(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)考慮(lv)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素,但人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)失誤(wu)很難(nan)量(liang)化(hua)。 事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)仍處在(zai)發(fa)展(zhan)和(he)完善(shan)中。目(mu)前(qian),事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)樹(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)在(zai)自(zi)動編制(zhi)、多狀(zhuang)態(tai)(tai)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)FTA 、相依事(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)件的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de) FTA、FTA 的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)組合爆炸、數據庫的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)建立及 FTA 技術的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實際應用(yong)(yong)等方(fang)(fang)(fang)面尚待進(jin)(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步分(fen)(fen)析(xi)研(yan)究,以(yi)(yi)求(qiu)新(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)和(he)突破。